"The residential community has been a real success," Chris Kober of Essex Property Trust told the San Mateo Daily Journal, describing Station Park Green, the roughly 600-unit community next to the Hayward Park Caltrain station. "The retail, by contrast, has not succeeded. We've got 10 to 11 retail spaces, and only three of them have ever even had a tenant in these seven years."
Near the station, housing fills up and shops struggle. The projects already approved around Concar Drive and South Amphlett Boulevard follow the same pattern: many new homes, very little new retail, and mostly attached homes for sale. If you are deciding between a townhome and a single-family house in this part of San Mateo, the more useful question is which of the two will face more new competition when you sell.
September split San Mateo's market in two
San Mateo's citywide numbers from the San Mateo County Association of REALTORS show two separate markets. The September 2026 report, posted October 9, 2026 and built on MLSListings data, put them side by side.
| San Mateo, September 2026 | Single-family | Condo and townhome |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $2,175,000 | $1,064,000 |
| Median price per square foot | $1,305 | $790 |
| Share of list price received | 107% | 100% |
| Average days on market | 14 | 41 |
| Active inventory | 39 | 85 |
| Sales in the month | 44 | 24 |
| Average months to sell | 0.9 | 3.4 |
Single-family homes in San Mateo sold in about two weeks for 7% over asking, and the city had fewer than a month's worth of them for sale. Attached homes took about six weeks, sold at list price, and had more than three months of supply. Countywide, condos and townhomes ran 2.7 months to sell in September 2026, so San Mateo's attached segment moved more slowly than the county's.
These are citywide figures for a single month, and 24 attached sales is a small sample. Still, the gap is large: 0.9 months against 3.4. It shows where a seller has leverage today, and new supply will widen or narrow that gap.
What has already been approved near the station
Three projects sit close to Hayward Park station at 401 Concar Drive. The Concar site is a nine-minute walk from the platform, according to The San Mateo Record. Each project is at a different stage.
- Concar Drive shopping center, 640–690 Concar Drive. San Mateo's Zoning Administrator approved the site plan on June 9, 2026, and the Planning Commission approved a 26-lot vesting tentative map on June 23, according to The San Mateo Record. The project is from Brookfield Properties with The Pacific Companies. It includes 139 three-story for-sale townhomes on the northern half of the 14.5-acre site and 708 apartments in three six- to seven-story buildings on the southern half. Of the 847 total homes, 186 are affordable. The Daily Journal reported that the townhomes will be three- and four-bedroom plans.
- Bayshore Commons, 1650–1720 S. Amphlett Blvd. The Planning Commission unanimously approved this project on February 10, 2026. It replaces a seven-building office campus with 256 for-sale homes: 192 townhome-style condominiums and 64 detached single-family homes. The Daily Journal reported, citing a staff report, that 38 of them would be for moderate-income households.
- The former Marriott, 1770 S. Amphlett Blvd. In May 2026, The Registry reported a proposal from 1700 SA Corp. to replace the vacant hotel with 234 homes, including townhomes and a six-story multifamily building. At that point it was a proposal, not an approval.
Counting only the two approved projects, 395 for-sale homes are planned near the station. Of those, 331 are townhomes or townhome-style condominiums, and 64 are detached houses.
Where that supply lands
Compare those 331 attached homes with San Mateo's September pace of 24 condo and townhome sales. The Concar townhomes alone equal almost six months of sales at that pace. Both approved projects together equal more than a year. Their detached homes add 64 houses to a single-family segment that had only 39 active listings across the whole city in September 2026.
New homes will not all arrive at once. Builders release them in phases, and one month of sales understates a full year. Still, the new attached supply goes to the part of the market that already has the most inventory and the lowest share of list price. A buyer who purchases an existing Hayward Park townhome today and sells in a few years may be competing with new three- and four-bedroom townhomes a few blocks away, with new finishes and builder incentives. A buyer of an existing single-family home will see some new competition as well, but far less of it.
The price gap matters too. In September 2026, attached homes in San Mateo sold at a median of $790 per square foot, and single-family homes at $1,305. The attached product is much cheaper per square foot. The new projects mainly add more of the cheaper product.
Why the shops keep shrinking
The second part of the story is retail, and the station blocks have struggled to keep it.
Station Park Green was completed in 2018. Since then, only three of its storefronts have had tenants, and all three left before their leases ended. The last was Beach Hut Deli, at the corner of Concar Drive and Delaware Street. The City Council unanimously agreed to let Essex use up to 35,000 square feet of the ground floor as office space, up from 15,000, and lowered the minimum retail space from 25,000 square feet to 3,000. Kober told the San Mateo Daily Journal that Essex plans to put its corporate office there and keep a few retail spaces along Concar Passage, where they have the best chance. Councilmember Danielle Cwirko-Godycki gave one explanation at the meeting: "I don't know that people are really aware that anything is around there, other than the Trader Joe's."
The Concar plan has shrunk in the same way. The version the City Council approved in September 2020 called for 961 homes, about 40,000 square feet of commercial space, a SEED food hall, a daycare for about 70 children, and three acres of open space. The 2026 plan has 3,100 square feet of new commercial space, and the only new store is a relocated 7-Eleven at Concar Drive and Grant Street. Trader Joe's stays. Ross Dress for Less, T.J. Maxx and most of the rest of the center will be demolished. As of The San Mateo Record's July 31 report, Peninsula Ballet Theatre, The Pantry, Ross and T.J. Maxx had no announced plans to relocate. The earlier approval had expired in September 2025.
For a buyer, this means the plans do not show a new main street at Concar. Trader Joe's will remain the anchor, and other daily shopping will stay where it is today, in the established centers outside the station blocks.
The new plan also went through faster than the old one. The San Mateo Record reported that it qualified as by-right housing under San Mateo Municipal Code Chapter 27.94 because at least 20% of the homes are for low-income households and the density is above 30 units per acre. That made the site plan approval nondiscretionary. The state's general framework for these sites is in HCD's housing element site inventory guidebook.
The construction years a buyer is signing up for
Timing matters as much as unit counts. Two kinds of work overlap here.
The first is the US-101/State Route 92 interchange project. Construction began in spring 2025, and Caltrans expects to finish in summer 2028. Caltrans warns of overnight work, lane and ramp closures, noise and vibration, and a temporary pedestrian detour at East Hillsdale Boulevard. This week shows what that looks like. Caltrans scheduled nightly full ramp closures from Sunday, October 25, through Friday, October 30. The closures include the westbound SR-92 loop ramp to southbound US-101, the northbound US-101 off-ramp to East Hillsdale Boulevard, and the Fashion Island Boulevard on-ramp to southbound US-101. Detours send traffic onto Delaware Street, eastbound Concar Drive and southbound South Delaware Street.
The second is the Concar redevelopment. The Daily Journal reported that the developers intend to build in 2027, if the construction documents they planned to submit this fall are approved. As of July 31, 2026, no building permit filing or construction start date had been announced. Brookfield has said it will also build bicycle and pedestrian improvements beyond what the city requires, to improve safety and access around the site. Those improvements are part of what the neighborhood gets at the end.
A buyer who closes in 2027 should therefore expect interchange work to continue into 2028 and, if Brookfield's plan holds, demolition and construction at Concar during the same period. When that buyer later sells, the new townhomes could be on the market at the same time.
A few direct questions
Does new supply mean townhome prices near Hayward Park will fall? The figures above cannot predict prices. They show that San Mateo's attached segment already had 3.4 months of supply in September 2026, and that the approved projects add mostly attached homes for sale. That points to more competition for resale townhomes. It does not by itself mean lower prices.
Are the 64 detached homes at Bayshore Commons significant? For a single-family segment that had 39 active listings citywide in September 2026, yes. They are the only new detached homes in the approved pipeline near the station.
Is the former Marriott project happening? In May 2026 it was a 234-home proposal. Its approval status could change, so check the city's project records before counting it.
Will Concar Passage get shops? Essex told the Daily Journal it plans to keep some retail along Concar Passage. The approved changes require at least 3,000 square feet of retail there.
If you are comparing a Hayward Park townhome with a single-family home, it helps to look at the approved projects nearby along with the comps. I'm glad to walk through both with you, including how a resale townhome near Concar might compete when new homes arrive. Carmen Miranda. Let's Connect.
